In the opening paragraph of this post, I make the following statement: “I’ve added graphs of NINO3.4 SST anomaly, since it’s a driver of global temperature anomaly (lag 3 to 5 months), and the Southern Oscillation Index, because it precedes NINO3.4 by a few months.”
The NINO3.4 SST anomaly does NOT always follow the SOI, though it has been doing so for the past few months. They do correlate remarkably well, but there are times when the changes in NINO3.4 will precede the SOI and times when they can become slightly out of synch. Therefore, I’ll retract the blanket statement of the SOI preceding NINO3.4 by a few months.
All graphs are from January 1978 to August 2008.
I’ve added graphs of NINO3.4 SST anomaly, since it’s a driver of global temperature anomaly (lag 3 to 5 months), and the Southern Oscillation Index, because it precedes NINO3.4 by a few months. For those not familiar with the SOI, I’ve also inverted it to permit a comparison to NINO3.4 SST anomaly.
1. NINO3.4 SST Anomaly – Monthly Change = +0.181 deg C
2. SOI – Monthly Change = +6.9
5. Northern Hemisphere – Monthly Change = -0.02 deg C
6. Southern Hemisphere – Monthly Change = +0.055 deg C
7. North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 70W to 10E) – Monthly Change = +0.004 deg C
8. South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E) – Monthly Change = -0.041 deg C
9. North Pacific (0 to 65N, 90 to 180W) & (0 to 65N, 100 to 180E) – Monthly Change = -0.038 deg C
10. South Pacific (0 to 60S, 70 to 180W) & (0 to 60S, 145 to 180E) – Monthly Change = +0.061 deg C
11. Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E) – Monthly Change = +0.104 deg C
12. Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N) – Monthly Change = +0.101 deg C
13. Southern Ocean (60 to 90S) – Monthly Change = +0.033 deg C
Sea Surface Temperature Data is Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST.v2) available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).